Finance · 20 Jul 2026 · 1 min read
What Yield Curve Inversions Actually Tell Us
Everyone quotes the 2s10s spread as a recession siren. The mechanism behind it is less agreed-upon than the headlines suggest.
AI · 15 Jun 2026 · 1 min read
Where Large Language Models Break in Financial Forecasting
LLMs are fluent at explaining markets after the fact. Asking one to forecast them is a different, much harder task.
Public Finances · 2 May 2026 · 1 min read
Sovereign Debt Sustainability, Revisited
Debt-to-GDP is the headline number, but the growth-rate-minus-interest-rate gap is doing the actual work.